Trump brokers a ceasefire — for Putin
It turns out Donald Trump can broker a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine, if it benefits Russia!
Worried about Ukraine’s ability to strike Moscow during Vladimir Putin’s Victory Day Parade, it appears the US furiously negotiated a snap truce.
‘I am pleased to announce that there will be a THREE DAY CEASEFIRE (May 9th, 10th, and 11th) in the War between Russia and Ukraine. The Celebration in Russia is for Victory Day but, likewise, in Ukraine, because they were also a big part and factor of World War II. This Ceasefire will include a suspension of all kinetic activity, and also a prison swap of 1000 prisoners from each Country. This request was made directly by me, and I very much appreciate its agreement by President Vladimir Putin and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Hopefully, it is the beginning of the end of a very long, deadly, and hard fought War. Talks are continuing on ending this Major Conflict, the biggest since World War II, and we are getting closer and closer every day,’ the US President wrote on Truth Social.
Zelensky endorsed the ceasefire based on the prisoner-swap saying: ‘Red Square matters less to us than the lives of Ukrainian POWs who can be brought home.’
He said Russia proposed the prisoner swap via American mediators and in an incredible troll, released a decree authorising no strikes on Red Square, that included the coordinates for where Putin’s parade will take place.
Russia celebrates Victory Day on May 9, commemorating the Soviet Union’s defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II with large-scale military parades and demonstrations throughout the country. In recent years, the day has become on opportunity to spread propaganda justifying the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
This year, Russia’s proposed truce was accompanied by plans to scale back the military displays in Moscow amid rising concerns over Ukrainian long-range strikes.
Ahead of Victory Day, Ukraine continued demonstrating its ability to strike targets in Russia with large-scale drone attacks, including launching dozens of drones at Moscow. A series of strikes in Perm, far from the Ukrainian border, already led the city to cancel its own Victory Day parade entirely.
Despite Russia’s increasing nervousness, the Kremlin sent threatening signals to Kyiv, warning diplomats in Ukraine to evacuate their missions before May 9. Embassies refused to comply.
Zelensky has also warned foreign leaders not to attend the Victory Day parades in Moscow and has warned Russia of ‘long-range sanctions’ in response to ceasefire violations.
Shortly before Trump’s ceasefire declaration, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio admitted that Washington’s efforts to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine ‘have stagnated.’
Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia have been stalled for over two months as the U.S. focused increasingly on its war against Iran. But in his Truth Social post, Trump claimed the peace talks were still underway.
Labour smashed in Wales, and in the Red Wall
The splintering of the British vote that Labour’s landslide of 2024 concealed is now visible for all to see.
Of the results of the Scottish, Welsh and council elections that are in, they are nothing short of a disaster for Labour in England and a catastrophe in Wales where Labour lost power for the first time in 100 years and was reduced to just nine seats.
This was once unheard of. I remember asking a Welsh Labour MP way back during the Brexit referendum if a Yes result might lead to eventual support for Welsh independence; his answer was yes.
Plaid didn’t win a majority, but they won the most seats, and Reform came second.
Plaid Cymru: 43 seats (35.4% of the vote)
Reform UK: 34 seats (29.3% of the vote)
Labour: 9 seats (11.4% of the vote)
Conservative: 7 seats (10.9%)
Green: 2 seats (6.8%)
Lib Dems: 1 (4.4%)
For more than a century, Labour has been the dominant force in Wales. Winning every national election.
That assumption is now shattered.
In total, just nine Labour MSs were returned. Plaid Cymru emerged dominant, though short of a majority, while Reform UK became the main opposition.
That alone would have been almost unthinkable in Welsh politics only a few years ago. The implications stretch far beyond Labour itself.
This election has exposed the fragmented modern multi-party politics of Wales.
Party loyalty and tribal voting patterns gone.
There are no Labour MSs representing areas like Ebbw Vale and Tredegar anymore. This is the homeland of Nye Bevan. You can no longer say the Valleys would vote for a donkey wearing a red rosette.
What happens next for Labour?
The leadership election which follows will focus minds in the short term, but it is the deeper questions that matter most.
Who are Welsh Labour for? What are Welsh Labour about?
After decades as the natural party of Welsh Government, they can spend the next period mulling it over.
Reform’s day out dents Starmer’s hopeful sucessors
Reform had a great day, gobbling up Labour’s traditional heartland votes in Brexit wall — seats that used to vote Labour, backed Brexit, then Boris Johnson and now Nigel Farage.
This is not just bad news for Keir Starmer, whose premiership has surely entered countdown mode, but for his potential successors, Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, Angela Rayner or Cabinet Minister Wes Streeting.
Across the northwest of England, where Mr Burnham is the Greater Manchester mayor, voters turned from Labour to Reform.
Notably in Wigan, the seat of one of his chief allies, culture secretary Lisa Nandy, Reform snatched all seats from Labour that were up for contention.
But the humiliation in the northwest was also bad news for Ms Rayner.
In the Tameside Council area, where her Ashton-under-Lyne constituency is located next to the Gorton and Denton Westminster seat, where Labour came a dreadful third in the by-election in February, 16 out of the 17 available seats go to Reform.
This was not an endorsement of her pretensions to be Labour leader and prime minister – just the opposite.
So while Britain has rejected Starmerism, it is also busy saying “none of the above” for the alternatives for Labour leader.
But Reform shouldn’t get carried away
Yes Reform gained the most but their vote is actually down from last year.
Farage fell short of his hopes to destroy the Conservatives entirely. The party remains the largest in Hampshire, a county in the south of England, and has so far won six boroughs in London, including Westminster, which it lost to Labour in 2022.
Moreover, Reform’s victories are not quite the outright triumph they appear at first glance. The ‘National Equivalent Vote’ is a measure produced by academics to estimate how Britons would have voted if local elections were held across the country.
Early projections suggest Reform would have won 31 per cent of the vote this time round. That is lower than the 32 per cent it scored in elections last year. Indeed, it is lower than the 33 per cent won by the Conservative Party in 2022, shortly before the party deposed Boris Johnson as prime minister. Reform may be the preferred party of a plurality of voters, but that is because the system as a whole is fragmenting.
Results in Wales show that Reform’s path to power is far from assured. In the country that Mr Farage once called his main priority, Plaid Cymru, a nationalist party, consolidated the centre-left vote and won 43 seats to Reform’s 34. ‘Stopping Reform UK’ was the second most commonly cited reason for supporting Plaid,
Which makes fertile conditions for a hung parliament
Where would this leave the UK at a national level? Keep in mind local elections are not the same conditions as a general. But the results do point to structural fragmentation that is underway.
These results would put Reform in a dominant position in a general, but not as an outright winner, according to this analysis.
Sky’s election expert Professor Michael Thrasher has projected a redistribution of each party’s seats in the House of Commons elected in July 2024, based on the NEV.
The result is a hung parliament with no single party able to pass the threshold of 326 seats required for an overall majority, but with Reform as the largest party.
Reform UK would win 284 seats, 42 seats short of a majority. Labour would win 110 seats compared to 96 seats for the Conservatives, despite winning a smaller vote share.
The Liberal Democrats would come fourth with 80 seats, followed by the SNP winning 36 seats. Plaid Cymru and the Greens are each projected to win 13 seats.
More than 40 councils have changed hands in what was a dramatic and historic election night.
The British election map has been re-drawn again, and the multi-party politics era will leave many councils attempting to operate with complex coalitions or minority administrations.
And that’s my list for this week.
I had another busy but fascinating week moderating a panel at the Yerevan Dialogue in Armenia.
You can watch it below
Next week I will be at Lennart Meri in Estonia.
📻 For my media appearances, I appeared on Moncole on Saturday to discuss Iran, King Charles III’s speech to Congress and sea urchins.
On the ABC’s Global Roaming, Geraldine Doogue and I spoke to Peter Pomerantsev about Putin’s grip on the war in Ukraine.
And Kylie Morris and I spoke to Australian energy analyst Dani Alexander about whether the war in Iran is accelerating the green transition.
Listen on all podcast apps and here.
Please do send me anything that’s caught your eye, I enjoy knowing what you’ve been reading.