Q&A: John Bolton savages weak Starmer over Iran
Donald Trump's former national security advisor backs regime change but has some questions
John Bolton served as national security adviser between 2018 and 2019 in the first Trump Administration and is one of the United States’ leading Iran hawks.
He fell out with the President over the publication of his memoir, The Room Where it Happened and is subsequently being pursued by the second Administration over the alleged mishandling of classified documents. Bolton denies the charges and is fighting them.
I caught up with him late on Sunday, before the UK confirmed an attack on an RAF base in Cyprus, to ask him about what comes next for Iran.
Below is a lightly edited transcript of our discussion.
Latika M. Bourke: Would you have advised Trump to take this action?
John Bolton: Well, I tried to persuade him during the first term to have a policy of regime change in Iran, obviously unsuccessfully. So I think the objective is clearly correct.
The threats from the Iranian nuclear program and ballistic missiles, and its terrorist activity in the Middle East and really worldwide, all justify seeking regime change because we’ve seen ever since 1979 that the regime is not going to change its behaviour; if anything, it’s gotten worse over time.
So clearly, the end result is right. Now, whether he’s carrying it out correctly remains to be seen. I’m very worried, for example, he has not effectively coordinated with the Iranian opposition, which is essential to success in affecting regime change.
Maybe he has? We just don’t know about it. Maybe we’ll see in the coming days, but I’m worried about that.
I’m worried that he hasn’t effectively made the case to the American people. He can do it, but he had the State of the Union opportunity last week, and he only took a few minutes to talk about Iran.
So I have concerns about the way it’s being implemented, but is it the right thing to do? Absolutely!
Latika M Bourke: But is it the right thing to do if, as you identify, it’s possible, there’s no plan for what comes next? Because what comes next in a vacuum could be horrific, couldn’t it?
John Bolton: Well, a lot of things could happen. That depends on what our preparations have been, and in particular consultations with the opposition, because what we want to try and do is pry the regime apart at the top.
It’s already under enormous stress. I think most people believe that if the Ayatollah Khamenei had died of natural causes a week ago, the regime would have been at the point of maximum stress.
It’s more unpopular inside Iran than it’s been since any time since it took power in 1979, and what we’ve done in effect is accelerate the succession crisis for the regime.
And we’ve also taken out a fair number of the people who would have been involved in the regime succession decision. So, I think that this is how you cause an authoritarian regime to collapse.
It’s in our interest to do that, and there’s nobody on God’s green earth that could guarantee that the change would be peaceful and swift, that’s in the nature of things.
The Iranian people showed in December and January that they were prepared to go out in the street to demand death to the ayatollahs. That’s what they were saying, and the regime, for their troubles, killed 32,000 of them [according to] what Trump said in the State of the Union.
So, I think they’re going to be cautious, but I think this regime is extraordinarily unpopular, and if there were ever a moment to undertake this, this is it.
Latika M Bourke: Who is your preferred person to take over? Do you have one?
John Bolton: No, I don’t, and I think at this point, it’s a mistake to focus on what comes afterwards. And Jim Baker, when he was Secretary of State before I worked for him, used to tell me all the time keep your eyes on the prize.
And right now, the prize is getting rid of the regime. There’ll be plenty of time afterwards to figure out what the new constitution of Iran is going to look like. You’re not going to write it down. It’s just distracting from the critical mission of fracturing the regime at the top, getting generals in the conventional military to come out on the opposition side, maybe even some from the Revolutionary Guard.
Latika M Bourke: It’s just, I have a horrible feeling, Ambassador Bolton, we’ve seen this story before, we’ve seen US interventions in the Middle East go horribly wrong.
John Bolton: Yeah, well, we did pretty well with Hitler, didn’t we?
Latika M Bourke: You’re being facetious. In the Middle East, we’ve got much more contemporary examples of it not going well.
John Bolton: No, look, I think we did just fine in Iraq and getting rid of Saddam Hussein. It was after the removal of Saddam Hussein that we engaged in nation-building in Iraq, and I think that’s a mistake.
I think it was a mistake to engage in nation-building in Afghanistan. But the biggest mistake we made in Afghanistan was withdrawing to allow the Taliban to take control again. If we want to be free of the threats of nuclear proliferation and terrorism, if the people of these countries want free governments, they have to be prepared to take risks. Nobody gives you freedom on a silver platter.
Latika M Bourke: The Allies who came out strongest in support of the original attacks were actually Canada and Australia, who took very strident positions on recognising Palestine at last year’s UNGA. Were you surprised by the split in the Allied response here? The UK and Europe were very lukewarm.
John Bolton: Yeah, I think the Brits are starting to come around.
Starmer has now authorised us to use British bases. And you know, Diego Garcia, by the way, is a joint US-UK base, we have our own rights there as well, but he’s now authorising UK bases for help in the attack.
The British are participating in what they call defensive action, shooting down Iranian drones and missiles. And I see that there’s just now a confirmation from the German government that an Iranian missile or drone hit a, I guess it’s a NATO position in Erbil in the Kurdish areas of Iraq, where German troops were deployed, apparently, no casualties, but it’ll be interesting now to see what the Germans do.
The fact is, Europe’s initial reaction was weak, which has been a problem with Europe for 25 years on Iran.
So I’m very happy that Canada and Australia came out the right way, and disappointed in Britain’s initial reaction, although I think it’s perhaps beginning to move in the right direction.
You know you have to ask the Europeans, are you concerned about threats only when they’re on your doorstep? Do you have no global strategic sense at all?
Latika M Bourke: So, was it a mistake for the UK not to allow the bases to be used for the original strikes?
John Bolton: Of course. If they can’t see the threat of Iranian terrorism in the UK, which has manifested itself in London and in other places in Europe manifested itself in the United States…
Latika M Bourke: In Australia, too. We had the IRGC orchestrate attacks on our soil…
John Bolton: Sure, and Canada too. So I don’t know what’s wrong with Starmer, but he’s barely still in power anyway.
Latika M Bourke: Do you think that will go down badly with Trump? Will that cause any sort of serious damage, or do you think he’ll get over it?
John Bolton: Well, sometimes he gets over things, sometimes he doesn’t. But as I say, Starmer appears to be changing his position
Latika M Bourke: Yes
John Bolton: And I’m sure that’s what he’s telling Trump. Better late than never, I suppose.
Latika M Bourke: And just finally, you mentioned not being able to see the geostrategic play. What is the geostrategic plan? Do you think this will have any implications for the war in Ukraine?
John Bolton: Well, you’re seeing a number of things. Although I don’t think we’ve accomplished really, regime change in Venezuela, we’ve taken out Maduro, but the chavistas are still in control down there and doing everything they can to remain in power.
But certainly, we’ve made a big change in Venezuela. I think Cuba – the post-Castro regime there is in big trouble.
We saw previously the Assad regime in Syria collapse previously, and the question of Russia’s naval and air Base there remain in uncertain status.
And now we may be seeing the collapse of the regime in Iran.
So, for Russia and China, these are all significant setbacks, and that’s what a global strategic picture is all about.
The gravest threat the West faces in the 21st century is the China-Russia axis, and what we have done incredibly in the past few months, and what’s been happening because of how Israel responded to the Hamas attack from 2023, is systematically dismantling the capabilities of some of the surrogates, some of the proxy satellites if you want to call them that of Russia and China.
I mean, that is very important work. And it leaves them much less in a position to cause us trouble around the world.
Latika M Bourke: And also, what do you make of Iran’s reaction? I mean, lashing out at all its neighbours, throwing drones at them and missiles. Do you think that reaction has the potential to reshape the region against Iran?
John Bolton: I think the region is already reshaped against Iran. I think that’s what permitted the Abraham Accords five or six years ago.
Because the Gulf Arab states in particular, the fact that they were in violent agreement with Israel that the biggest threat they all faced was the threat from Iran, not just the nuclear program, but the terrorist threat as well.
And so, I think, while the Gulf Arabs were worried about retaliation from Iran back when the US and Israel bombed the nuclear program in the 12-day War, the Israelis went after a lot of other things, but we bombed the nuclear program, but they certainly like to see the regime fall.
Now that Iran, if these were deliberate attacks on these civilian targets, I mean, I’m sure the Iranians would say, well, we were aiming at something else, and the missile landed in the wrong place, but the inevitable response is that the Gulf Arabs have to say we’re just not going to live here and tolerate this.
I saw a report from Al Araybia that the Saudis had issued a statement saying they would join in US attacks on Iran.
I wouldn’t be surprised if that were the result, because when you’re just sitting there, and you get attacked, what reaction do the Ayatollahs think the Gulf Arabs are going to have?
It has, they don’t want to be in this position, I understand that everybody would like to have their cake eat it, too, it’s perfectly natural, but once, once you once you come under fire, what do you think the reaction is going to be?