I want to continue as Andy Burnham's AUKUS envoy
Sir Stephen Lovegrove said there was no need to worry about the political upheaval affecting submarines
Sir Stephen Lovegrove says he wants to stay on in his role as the Prime Minister’s Special Representative on AUKUS under Andy Burnham. He has been in the specially-created role since April last year.
Lovegrove also reassured Australia and the US that the political upheaval, namely the ousting of Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister of the UK after just two years, was nothing to worry about in terms of it affecting the plan to deliver Australia nuclear-propelled submarines.
He made his comments in response to my question during his appearance at the Policy Exchange think tank in Westminster on Wednesday.
‘I wouldn’t worry too much about the state of AUKUS in the UK,’ he told me. ‘
‘The investments are so large, which are going into Barrow and to Rolls in Derby, that they’re sort of unturnoffables really.
‘Likewise, in the States, there’s a lot of talk about that as well, that ship has sailed as it were.
‘AUKUS is part of all three countries’ most important projects. It’s going to continue. I can’t speak for the rest of the DIP in the UK, but I don’t have any real concerns about the commitment to our nuclear submarine fleet, either the bombers or the attack boats.
‘So I would encourage Australian and indeed American colleagues not to read alarming things into basically, shorter-term political perturbation in the UK.’
Quick recap. AUKUS, first agreed in 2021, plans to deliver Australia nuclear-powered subs in two ways.
The first is through Australia's purchase of three Virginia-class submarines already in use by the US Navy. If all goes well, and that’s a big if, those boats should arrive by the early 2030s. No firm date is ever given, but sources say privately that they are expected around 2032.
Then comes the UK part. Australia will then seek to co-build and design the UK’s next attack boat in the Astute class. That boat will be called SSN-AUKUS. Because Australia has a ban on civil nuclear, the reactors will be made by Rolls-Royce in the UK, and Australia will build other, less exquisite parts of the boat.
UK shipbuilding is in dire straits, to put it mildly. As is the momentum for AUKUS, according to the UK’s chair of the House of Commons Defence Committee Tan Dhesi, who was recently on my podcast.
Latika Takes interviews Tanmanjeet Singh Dhesi
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He said the program was ‘faltering and plodding along’ as in need of an urgent reboot and that UK shipyards needed further investments. He also called for the UK to raise defence spending faster and higher, the issue over which John Healey quit as Defence Secretary, catalysing the inevitable demise of Starmer, who could be replaced by Andy Burnham as soon as next month.
It’s hard to reconcile that well-researched assessment with Lovegrove’s optimism, and indeed that of Richard Marles, Australia’s Defence Minister, who told the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s (ASPI) defence conference in Canberra on Thursday: ‘AUKUS is happening.’
‘From the UK's point of view: to be able to share the success of their Astute-class submarine with another country—and the sharing of strategic risk that goes with that—is so advantageous for them. I can't imagine a UK government not walking down that path. They will need to have a successor to this Astute-class. It's hugely advantageous for them to be doing it jointly with us,’ Marles said.
Marles was speaking to Justin Bassi, ASPI’s Executive Director. Bassi told me that Australia should be adopting the Lovegrove model.
‘Stephen was there as AUKUS was being negotiated. Few know the need for the partnership better,’ he said.
‘Stephen’s role as AUKUS envoy has been beneficial as communication is the flip side of the same strategic capability coin. Ideally all three nations would have AUKUS tsars or envoys whose dedicated mission is to help keep the public informed and build the social license necessary for such a multi-generation security endeavour.’
An AUKUS envoy for all three countries is one of Dhesi’s recommendations and one I personally backed, arguing for it in a column I recently wrote in The Nightly.
But will Lovegrove stay in the role?
He’s a former national security advisor and reached the highest ranks of the UK civil service, and chairs Rolls-Royce SMR, the company planning small modular nuclear reactors.
‘I was renewed by the Prime Minister in that appointment for another stint in, I think, April. Do I want to continue doing it? Yes, I do,’ he said.
‘It’s very, very, very critical strategic, security development. It’s the most important strategic defence collaboration since 1956 and any part that I can play in helping it to be successful, then I would like to play.
‘It’s not my choice as to whether or not the new Prime Minister thinks that’s appropriate or not, and I’ll leave that in his hands. I will certainly be trying to make the argument that someone – doesn’t have to be me – someone plays the kind of role that I hope I’ve been playing.’
For someone who has been on the British political scene for decades, not much is known about Burnham’s foreign policy views and or his thinking on defence spending. But the political turbulence around the issue makes it a priority and pressing issue, especially with Starmer to represent the UK at the NATO summit in Ankara next month.
NATO allies have agreed to spend 3.5 per cent of GDP on defence by 2035 with an extra 1.5 per cent on associated infrastructure.
The UK’s plan under Starmer is to reach 3 per cent in the next parliament, so after 2029, which Healey slammed in his resignation letter.
The UK’s credibility is on the line. It fell from third to twelfth place in the NATO league tables this year and US President Donald Trump is not in the mood to accept excuses following what he sees as a betrayal by Europe for not supporting his war in Iran.
Speaking in the White House alongside Mark Rutte, NATO’s Secretary-General, Trump said he was not planning to go to Turkey, but for a call from President Recep Erdoğan.
He said he was going out of respect for Erdoğan.
‘I wouldn’t have gone for what we went through over the last two months with the various countries. I was disappointed with Italy, I was disappointed with UK, he’s now gone,’ Trump said, referring to Starmer.
‘The big question is, are they paying the 5 per cent? They agreed six months ago when we were together to pay per cent, and for the most part they’re not paying that.