I asked Alexander Stubb why Europe doesn't do a reverse Trump
The Finnish President sounded a gloomy tone on the prospects of Trump ending the war in Ukraine
London: Alexander Stubb is often touted as Europe’s Trump-whisperer. It is a moniker he is the first to disclaim.
‘I don’t want to inflate my relationship with the president of the United States,’ the Finnish President said, during an appearance at the London think tank Chatham House.
‘I have no illusions about who can convince President Trump on anything. If I get one idea out of ten in on Ukraine, that’s good.’
Finland, having joined NATO along with Sweden as a reaction to Vladimir Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, is a champion of Kyiv’s. Stubb was a member of the Eurosquad of leaders who flew to Washington to protect Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky from receiving another Oval Office lashing. He has always projected a realist, but more positive view of the transatlantic alliance.
So his gloomy tone during his question and answer session was notable as he applied his realism to the prospects of Donald Trump brokering a peace in Ukraine, as the US President bragged he would do if returned to power, in just one day.
Trump campaigned on ‘Peace through Strength’ and ending wars. But on his watch, the President has overseen the third and fourth-year anniversaries of the war in Ukraine, snatched and grabbed the leader of Venezuela, threatened to invade Greenland, bombed Iran’s nuclear assets once and is now locked in a war with Tehran that threatens another global economic shock.
Then there is the damage the war in Iran, and Trump’s bitter reaction to Allies not rushing to help him reopen the Strait of Hormuz, does to European security and the longevity of NATO and its crucible, Article 5.
‘The implications of the war in Iran are negative on Ukraine mainly because of the oil price which feeds the Russian war machinery,’ Stubb said.
‘The Russian economy was actually doing extremely badly a couple of weeks back, now it’s bouncing back.’
That is partly due to the US easing sanctions on Russian oil. The FT calculated Russia’s windfall was valued at $150 million per day.
The Iranian war is also using up precious air defence systems that European countries, plus partners like Australia and New Zealand, were buying from the US on Kyiv’s behalf.
‘So I hope that the peace negotiations on Ukraine don’t collapse like the negotiations between Iran and the US did, but time will tell,’ Stubb said, pessimistically.
Trump has continued to hold Ukraine up as an example of NATO’s failure for the US.
‘We helped with Ukraine, and they don’t help with Iran and they all acknowledge that Iran can’t have a nuclear weapon,’ the President said later during a media appearance with the Irish Taoiseach Michael Martin.
After becoming President, Mr Trump stopped all weapons aid to Kyiv and demanded Europe and partners buy US weapons for Ukraine instead. And after easing the oil sanctions on Russia, he now wants Europe and Indo-Pacific allies to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz to help reopen the vital trade route, which Iran controls and has effectively shut down.
But there is little appetite from allies to bail the US out of its war of choice.
I suggested to Stubb what I wrote in yesterday’s column, that Europe should do a reverse Trump — essentially be transactional back.
For those of you who don’t want to watch, here’s a transcript of the exchange.
Latika M Bourke: Just following on from that and your point about indulging in Realpolitik now. Why doesn’t Europe go to Trump and say, if you want assistance in the Gulf, here’s what we want you to do on Ukraine?
President Alexander Stubb : I think it’s a really good idea. I might pick you up on that.
laughter
Stubb: Um, no, I think it’s actually a really good idea.
Laughter
Latika: I’m available for advice.
Stubb: Can my team take your phone number please? No, but I mean, yeah, I’ll think about it. I’ll talk about it with my colleagues. Some of them are here in London today.
Stubb also reflected a sentiment that has been slowly dawning on Europe, that its safety may already be solely in its own hands.
‘We are approaching the moment when political conversation channels have to be opened with Russia, but that has to be done in a very coordinated manner among European allies and friends, not as a solo act, not as we have seen with Prime Minister Fico of Slovakia or Prime Minister Orban of Hungary,’ he said.
‘It needs to be very much a unified approach.’
This was in response to a question about a call made by Belgium’s Bart De Wever, who said it was time for the EU to negotiate an end to the war so that Europe could restore access to cheap Russian energy.
De Wever was the successful chief opponent of the European Commission’s plan to seize Russia’s frozen assets and loan them to Ukraine, payable upon reparations by Russia after the end of the war.
A reminder that the ultimate winner of Trump’s behaviour has always been Russia and its enablers.