Ball's in Russia's court, but also MAGA's
ANALYSIS: A Ukrainian ceasefire?
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was emphatic.
After talks with his delegation, Ukraine’s agreement to a 30-day ceasefire meant the the ball was now in Russia’s court, he declared, a sentiment echoed by other world leaders.
But in another sense, it is also now in the MAGA movement’s court as well.
The mood music from Jeddah couldn’t have sounded more different to the surly sounds in the Oval Office when US President and his attack dog, Vice President JD Vance, tore strips off the Ukranian wartime leader Volodomyr Zelensky, whom Trump had previously falsely called a dictator and accused of starting the war.
Lawmakers and leading figures in Mr Trump’s Make America Great Again political movement have been outwardly hostile to the Ukrainians, arguing that NATO was to blame for Russia’s imperialism while ignoring the fact that when the international alliance doubled its border when Sweden and Finland joined, there was no response from Moscow.
And President Trump has repeatedly stressed his warm relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who launched his unprovoked and illegal invasion in February 2022.
By contrast, the United States has been quick to dish out retribution to Ukraine for its perceived ingratitude by cutting off intelligence and military aid from Kyiv — tactics that clearly favoured Russia ahead of negotiations.
‘This is not Mean Girls,’ US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who sat slumped on the sofa next to Vice President Vance during the Oval Office blowup, told journalists at the Ritz Carlton where the talks were held.
‘This is not some episode of some television show, this is very serious.
‘Today, people will die in this war; they died yesterday, and sadly, unless there’s a ceasefire tonight, they’ll die tomorrow.
‘The President wants that to stop.
‘And what we leave here with today is a commitment that the Ukrainians are ready to stop fighting.’
Ukraine, which did not start the war and has always called for a just and lasting peace, earned not just US favour but material rewards for agreeing to the ceasefire.
‘As a result of this positive step forward, the President has decided to lift the pause on aid and on our security assistance to Ukraine going forward, and that’s effective immediately,’ US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz said after the meeting.
‘We’ve gone from if the war is going to end to now how the war is going to end.
‘And that was under President Trump’s leadership, he has literally moved the global conversation.’
A sigh of relief can be breathed at this point. Europe, once consigned by the Americans from even the negotiating table, would be part of the peace process.
‘In the Joint Statement, you have seen that our European partners will definitely be involved in this process,’ Andriy Yermak, President Zelensky’s chief adviser who attended the talks, said.
UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, who has established a relationship with Mr Trump and whose first act after the Oval Office horror show was not to tweet but hit the phones to call both Presidents warmly, welcomed ‘the remarkable breakthrough.’
‘This is an important moment for peace in Ukraine and we now all need to redouble our efforts to get a lasting and secure peace as soon as possible,’ Sir Keir said.
Britain has used its convening power to gather European leaders in London to discuss future security guarantees for Ukraine, including troops to protect any peace.
Prime Minister Starmer’s national security adviser, Jonathan Powell, has been in Kyiv alongside the French, helping draw up ceasefire proposals, the details of which are crucial.
The US and Ukraine agreed that during the 30-day ceasefire, prisoners of war should be exchanged and forcibly taken Ukranians children should be returned.
These are quantifiable and practical steps that can be taken within a month to test the commitment to end the fighting.
Britain and France didn’t get plaudits in the United States’ self-congratulations but do share the credit for their joint leadership. However, there is a long way to go.
As Mr Rubio, Sir Keir and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen all immediately said: ‘The ball is in Russia’s court.’
This is one of the biggest caveats to note, alongside how to permanently settle a peace that protects Ukraine from further invasion.
European and Ukranian requests for a US security guarantee to keep Putin within his borders will be central, and so far, the United States has not wanted to provide this assurance.
NATO’s boss, Mark Rutte, is heading to Washington DC and will be in the White House on Thursday to press this case.
And then there is the MAGA.
It is now incumbent upon those in the GOP who have openly sided with Russian interests, claiming their motives are driven by a desire to stop the killing and even peel Moscow away from Beijing, to prove that this position is justified and will yield the results that attempting to humiliate President Zelensky achieved.
‘Ukraine is ready for peace,’ President Zelensky said in his nightly video address.
‘Russia must also show whether it is ready to end the war – or continue it.
‘The time has come for the whole truth.’
Zelensky is right.
President Trump’s repeated boasts of his friendship with Putin – who he constantly reminds us went through the “Russia hoax” with him – are about to be put to the test.
‘Now we have to go to Russia, hopefully President Putin will agree to that also,’ President Trump said.
‘We’re going to meet with them later on today and tomorrow.
‘If we can get Russia to do it, that’ll be great; if we can’t, we just keep going on, and people are going to get killed – lots of people.’
Not quite.
If Putin says no, it will be because he determines that he is in a position of strength over his US counterpart.
Not only would this blow apart Trump’s claims to be able to use his personal relationship with Putin to resolve the war and that Russia has been supposedly so much easier to deal with compared to Ukraine, but it would also trigger questions about the nature of that leverage.
And it would undermine the claim that wooing Russia and not punishing it for launching a war and the subsequent war crimes committed is worthwhile to break up the ‘no limits’ partnership that Putin established with China’s President Xi Jinping on the eve of the invasion.
But if Trump prevails and proves his strength over Putin, he will claim vindication for his vindictive, punitive treatment of Ukraine, not caring that they shocked allies and prompted open conversations about whether the United States remains an ally of the West.
This piece was first published by The Nightly.