Analysing the latest Threat Assessments

On the latest threat assessment by the US and European Intelligence communities.

This is my second collaboration with the esteemed Retired Australian Army Major General and author and strategist Mick Ryan.

You can read our previous article here. Stay tuned for more collaborative work in the future.

Recently, the US intelligence agencies released their assessment of the threats the world faces. This is an annual report, with their public reports back to 2006 being available.

The 2024 report makes for a grim reading because it confirms that enduring competition and much more regular conflict are here to stay. In Ukraine’s case, the war is tilting in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s favour as Western support lags.

The bleak analysis was echoed by other recent intelligence and threat assessments released by Lithuania, Estonia and Norway. 

Lithuania’s 2024 threat assessment notes that physical and informational threats from Russia and China are increasing, as is the threat of Islamic terrorism throughout Europe. The Estonian 2024 assessment, while also describing increased threats from China and terrorism, was generally focused on Russia. The report described how “Putin aims to secure victory in Ukraine to demonstrate geopolitical superiority over the West and reshape the European security landscape.”

Norway’s Intelligence Service said that in 2024, Russia was not just ‘gaining ground on Ukraine’ but ‘about to gain the military upper hand,’ with Russia’s position in the war ‘stronger than it was a year ago’ having ramped up its production and obtained ‘considerable material support’ from China, Belarus, Iran and North Korea. 

‘Moscow is handling Western sanctions better than expected, and the production rate of ammunition, combat vehicles, drones and missiles is higher now than it was a year ago,’ the report said.

According to the Norwegians, Moscow sees its war as a proxy one against the West and is prepared for a lengthy contest. 

On Gaza, the US Intelligence report said that Israel would ‘probably face lingering armed resistance from Hamas for years to come’ and that Israel’s military would ‘struggle to neutralise Hamas’s underground infrastructure.’ 

In summary, these wars are not going anywhere, and they are likely going to get worse. If 2023 was defined by stalemate in Ukraine, 2024 could be a year of breakthrough – for Russia.