Latika Takes

Charles has a history of political meddling, thank goodness!

Latika M Bourke — Wed, 29 Apr 2026 09:23:22 GMT

King Charles III’s plea to Congress to resist isolationism, reminder of the need for peace in Ukraine, as well as the value of allies, was brave, funny, eloquent and demonstrated the value of his unorthodox approach as a royal.

His special mention of AUKUS and Australia, which earned applause from the bitterly divided US Congress, emphasised the monarchy’s reach beyond Britain and, paradoxically, his unique royal position to say the unsayable.

King Charles III addresses US Congress and is applauded by Vice President JD Vance and Speaker Mike Johnson.

As Prince of Wales, Charles was seen as a political meddler, writing to ministers and speaking on issues such as environmentalism, farming, architecture and even genetically modified crops.

Royals are supposed to say as little as possible to avoid any perception of being anything other than politically neutral. In 2018, Charles acknowledged his meddling and told the BBC he would not indulge it when sovereign — ‘I’m not that stupid,’ he said at the time.

But Western allies should be grateful for his decades of practice. It meant that in April 2026, he could use his especial position as monarch to speak to the Americans the words our political leaders cannot, at least not without risking the fury and vengeance of US President Donald Trump.

From NATO, to Ukraine, to AUKUS, the King used his address to Congress to remind America of its superpower role and the power of its allies, as he urged that they ‘ignore the clarion calls to become ever more inward-looking.’

‘America’s words carry weight and meaning, as they have since independence. The actions of this great Nation matter even more,’ he said, invoking Lincoln’s Gettysburg Address.
‘The challenges we face are too great for any one Nation to bear alone. But in this unpredictable environment, our Alliance cannot rest on past achievements, or assume that foundational principles simply endure.’

Many in the UK had not wanted this visit to go ahead because of Trump’s repeated insults of Britain and the UK Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer. Relations between the US and UK have reached a tense point.

Trump has repeatedly lashed out at Starmer for not backing the war in Iran, and initially denying the US access to joint bases.

Some European countries also denied the US landing rights and have outright condemned the war. This enraged Trump, who has subsequently repeatedly threatened to withdraw from NATO.

Even suggesting this is an erosion of NATO’s fundamental deterrence clause, Article 5, which states that an attack on one will be treated as an attack on all.

Trump has also threatened NATO by suggesting he might invade Greenland, administered by NATO ally Denmark. When the US President was forced to retreat, he lashed out at Alliance members for not fighting in Afghanistan and suggested allies, and specifically, the British, had not fought on the frontline with the Americans.

It was an insult that even for Trump could not be overlooked. The King’s self-exiled second son, Prince Harry, who fought in Afghanistan, had already chastised the US President.

This time it was his father’s turn.

‘In the immediate aftermath of 9/11, when NATO invoked Article 5 for the first time … we answered the call together – as our people have done so for more than a century, shoulder to shoulder, through two World Wars, the Cold War, Afghanistan and moments that have defined our shared security,’ King Charles said.
‘Today, Mr Speaker, that same, unyielding resolve is needed for the defence of Ukraine and her most courageous people – it is needed in order to secure a truly just and lasting peace.’

As President, Trump was not allowed inside the Capitol building to watch the speech. Earlier, he told a gathering at the White House, standing next to the King, that he would have loved to be there but was forbidden by protocol.

Trump, who promised to end the war in Ukraine in one day, but now appears to have lost interest after starting his war in Iran and attacking Venezuela, will no doubt have heard the King’s graciously delivered admonition.

But if he heard the criticisms, underneath Charles’ gentle tone, the famously thin-skinned President did not let it show.

At the later State Dinner, the President congratulated the King’s address as fantastic, with a return serve of wit, noting the King had earned a standing ovation from the Democrats, something he, the President, has never managed. He also let slip that the King had evidently shared his view that Iran must never have a nuclear weapon, a position that matches His Majesty’s Government.

King Charles did not shy away from raising climate change, a cause he has campaigned on for decades and long before it became a mainstream political issue, now reviled by the US political right as well as parts of Australia’s right.

‘From the depths of the Atlantic to the disastrously melting ice-caps of the Arctic, the commitment and expertise of the United States Armed Forces and its allies lie at the heart of NATO, pledged to each other’s defence, protecting our citizens and interests, keeping North Americans and Europeans safe from our common adversaries,’ he said.
‘Our defence, intelligence and security ties are hardwired together through relationships measured not in years, but in decades.’

He reminded the US of the joint defence projects they are undertaking, including fighter jets and submarines. When it came to AUKUS, he could not finish his sentence, as the Congress interrupted to applaud the project.

It was another testimony for the bipartisan support for the project that Pentagon official and one-time AUKUS-sceptic Elbridge Colby tried but failed to nix last year with his America First review.

He made special mention of Australia, saying he was ‘so immensely proud to serve as Sovereign.’

At the dinner, Charles delivered a masterstroke, noting an AUKUS predecessor — HMS Trump, a World War Two British submarine that played a critical role in the Pacific.

‘So tonight, Mr President, I am delighted to present to you – as a personal gift – the original bell which hung on the Conning Tower of your valiant namesake,” he said.
‘May it stand as a testimony to our nation’s shared history and shining future. And should you ever need to get hold of us… Well, just give us a ring!’

The combined speeches were ones that every Australian, republican, monarchist or just plain apathetic, should recognise as being delivered in Australia’s security interests also.

It was a speech for Canada, too. President Trump has repeatedly threatened to make Canada the 51st American state. Charles jovially reminded the President that he is the King of Canada, observing that Canada and the United States made the President and King effectively ‘joint hosts’ of the upcoming FIFA World Cup that is being staged across the two countries as well as Mexico.

Republican Senator and Trump-whisperer Lindsey Graham said, ‘The King nailed it.’

‘His speech was a much-needed morale boost for Congress, as he glowingly praised our nation and highlighted the role Congress plays in our democratic republic,’ Senator Graham wrote on X.
‘The speech was a terrific combo of wit, humour, history and appreciation.
‘I believe most members of Congress feel better after the speech than they did before. Though I will admit it was a bit odd that the unifying feeling had to come from the King of England… but so be it!’

What effect this will have on Trump and MAGA to stick by NATO over the next few decades is the bigger question. It may mean nothing at all if what comes after Trump is even more ideological.

But King Charles demonstrated royal bravery with his unconventional approach and daring speech, which once again reinforced the value of the monarchy in a world of turbulence.

This article was first published by The Nightly

🇬🇷 From Delphi Economic Forum, Latika Takes interviews Carla Sands

Latika M Bourke — Tue, 28 Apr 2026 23:23:38 GMT

This week Latika Takes: The Podcast is in Greece at the Delphi Economic Forum.

Carla Sands and Latika M Bourke at the Delphi Economic Forum in Greece.

Latika’s guest is Carla Sands, who served as Donald Trump’s Ambassador to Denmark during his first Presidential term.

Carla Sands discusses NATO, why Article 5 is no longer considered iron-clad by MAGA and will change post-Trump.

Carla Sands also discusses President Trump’s comments disparaging allied war dead in Afghanistan and what Australia can do to be a model ally.

'He’s an arsehole': Labour fury at Keir Starmer

Latika M Bourke — Wed, 22 Apr 2026 08:02:34 GMT

Keir Starmer is a pitiful figure. Incurious and incompetent, the UK Prime Minister’s reputation as a decent but boring managerial technocrat is shot. He is undone by the foreseeable disaster that was appointing Peter Mandelson to represent the UK as Ambassador to the United States.

‘The more I hear, the angrier I get. I think we need to dispense with a…

France reveals a silver lining of Trump 2.0

Latika M Bourke — Tue, 21 Apr 2026 21:02:49 GMT

Donald Trump’s effect on Europe is not all negative. Alongside Europe’s long-overdue remarmament, France is finally shaking off its protectionist, anti-trade-deal posture.

France’s Trade Minister Nicolas Forissier has told me in an exclusive interview that France supports the trade deal Europe struck with Australia last month, describing it as ‘high-qua…

An interview with Australia's Defence Industry Minister

Latika M Bourke — Wed, 15 Apr 2026 19:52:41 GMT

On Thursday, the Australian government will release the National Defence Strategy and announce a long-overdue boost to Australia’s defence spending. The headline is 3 per cent of GDP by 2033 and $14 billion over the next four years.

But scrutiny will be required of both the calculations and the planned mix of private and public spending behind this headl…

Hungary exposes the limits of JD Vance

Latika M Bourke — Tue, 14 Apr 2026 09:59:40 GMT

It has not been the best of weeks for the US Vice President. JD Vance has tried to do two things and failed, and both could affect his tilt to be Donald Trump’s successor.

In a sign that perhaps the US President does not regard his Vice President as his heir, Trump ordered Vance to lead the post-ceasefire negotiations with Iran, which unsurprisingly did …

Latika Takes interviews Michael Fallon

Latika M Bourke — Wed, 08 Apr 2026 10:02:32 GMT

This week Latika Takes: The Podcast is in London and is joined by the UK’s former Defence Secretary Michael Fallon.

Sir Michael served as Defence Secretary between 2014 and 2017 and during part of President Donald Trump’s first term.

He discusses why the UK, NATO and Indo-Pacific allies, including Australia should have supported the US war in Iran.

Sir Michael also discusses the UK’s defence spending and the likelihood of the UK delivering on AUKUS.

First NATO, now MAGA targets the Five Eyes

Latika M Bourke — Tue, 07 Apr 2026 11:42:30 GMT

Donald Trump is angry at everyone. NATO, Europe, Australia, South Korea, Japan and Iran.

However, his fury seems to make no distinction between his adversary and allies.

The US President’s Easter Sunday Truth Social post was an eye-rubbing moment.

‘Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like i…

Trump doesn’t need to quit NATO to fatally undermine it

Latika M Bourke — Sun, 05 Apr 2026 00:05:16 GMT

NATO’s 77th birthday is more a day of extreme crisis management than celebration, that is, unless you are Vladimir Putin.

Formed on April 4 1949, NATO today has expanded from its founding 12 members to 32 and by the US State Department’s own words, ‘remains the largest peacetime military alliance in the world.’

But it is in jeopardy. Donald Trump, enrag…

Europe turns a page on Trump

Latika M Bourke — Fri, 03 Apr 2026 07:33:12 GMT

European leaders have turned a page on their attempts to pacify and appease the volatile President in the White House.

As 40 countries and international organisations, including Australia, met online to discuss ways to try and stop Iran from holding ‘the global economy hostage,’ a blunt Emmanuel Macron told Donald Trump to get serious, and that world pol…

Latika Takes interviews Pulitzer Prize winner Greg Grandin

Latika M Bourke — Sun, 29 Mar 2026 09:31:02 GMT

This week Latika Takes: The Podcast interviews Greg Grandin, author of America, América.

Grandin discusses his book and the creation of the Monroe Doctrine, now adopted by President Donald Trump and many presidents before him.

Grandin discusses how America’s relationship with Latin America and Europe created the Doctrine and set in place the US’s modern foreign policy.

What I'm Reading: The Monroe Doctrine Explained

Latika M Bourke — Sat, 28 Mar 2026 22:22:18 GMT

America, América: A New History of the New World

America, América was published in April last year and was a pandemic project of Pulitzer Prize winner Greg Grandin.

I picked up a copy at Moncole Radio around this time, thinking that following the election of Trump, a good brush-up book on American history could do me no harm.

It stayed on my bookshelf until late last year, when I knew I’d be heading back to the United States, firstly to cover for The Nightly, UNGA and then Anthony Albanese’s bilat with Trump. It’s a weird thing I do, but I always like to be trying to read a book about a significant country I’m about to visit.

To my sheer delight, it turned out to be the most fortuitous read of my life. As the Trump Administration unveiled its National Security Strategy with the Monroe Doctrine at its heart, in my hands was a book detailing the exact history of how and why the Monroe Doctrine came into being and how it has morphed to justify different US foreign policies over time.

The first thing to say is this book is dazzling, in writing, content and narrative. I am quite ashamed to admit it, but Latin America was a total gap in my knowledge; we weren’t taught it at school in Australia, and I’d had little incentive to repair the oversight in adult life. Fortunately, America, América was such a sparkling read, it was easy to quickly become immersed in the history of countries I’ve never visited (except Mexico).

Grandin is a beautiful writer and writes history richly and with just enough detail. He sweeps through hundreds of years in this book, and it is the perfect read for understanding the doctrine that has shaped MAGA’s worldview.

This book taught me how utterly coherent (that is not to say logical) Trump’s foreign policy is when viewed through the lens of Monroe. The Doctrine was formed as an anti-European policy at a time when colonisation had ravaged Latin America. America wanted Europe out of the Western hemisphere, although at that time, the Americans had no plans to try to interfere in Europe, as is MAGA’s stated goal today.

It was also written at a time when America was rapidly expanding. It is far from being 50 states at this time in history, and Monroe himself has overseen the acquisition of land from France — during his presidency, five states joined the Union.

Against this backdrop, Trump’s contemporary threats about the US acquiring Greenland and constant jokes about making Canada a 51st state can and should be taken more seriously. Expansionism, not isolationism, is the American worldview.

Another factor I appreciated as a result of reading this book was how early on the Americans resisted multilateralism and/or international/external rules. As a result of the brutal colonisation, Latin America emerged as a hotbed of intellectualism and liberalism, particularly relating to the proposals of international governing systems. The US viewed this then, as it does today, as attempts to rule it from the outside and was fiercely opposed.

Finally, Grandin documents how various Presidents seized on Monroe to adapt it to follow whatever foreign policy they wanted. In the end, it became a crutch for justifying US interventions as we see taking place today.

Essentially, Monroe begins as something of a damp squib, primed for domestic politics that becomes an amorphous blank cheque as long as Presidents can justify the projection of US power in America First interests.

I honestly think this is one of the most underrated history books that explains today out there, and I cannot recommend it enough.

And in exciting news, Greg will be on my podcast tomorrow!

Penguin Books

President James Monroe

James Monroe turns out to be a hugely interesting and perhaps overlooked ‘founding father’ President.

James Monroe, fifth President of the United States (1817-1825)

In 1799, Monroe was elected governor of Virginia. As governor, Monroe increased state involvement in education and transportation, he also invested in the state militia.

He supported the candidacy of Thomas Jefferson in 1800, by appointing election officials favourable to Jefferson to ensure his presidential victory.

Jefferson capitalised on this support and Monroe’s ambassadorial past, by sending him to France to assist in the Louisiana Purchase.

While negotiating, Jefferson made Monroe the ambassador to Britain. Jefferson gave orders to purchase only West Florida and New Orleans for at most nine million dollars, Monroe disobeyed Jefferson and bought all of Louisiana for fifteen million dollars. Monroe’s actions did not anger Jefferson; rather he was very pleased with the purchase, the president even offered Monroe the position of the first governor of the new territory, he declined and remained in Europe to continue as ambassador to the British.

…

In 1811 Monroe was once again elected the governor of Virginia; however, in April of that year, Madison appointed him Secretary of State, forcing him to leave the gubernatorial position. By selecting Monroe, Madison sought to quell instability within the party, along with reconciling with his former friend. As Secretary of State, Monroe worked diligently to prevent the practice of impressment. He found progress with the French, however, the British would not negotiate, and in 1812, Monroe joined Henry Clay and the ‘War Hawks’ and called for war. Madison followed Monroe’s advice, and the War of 1812 began.

The War of 1812 cemented Monroe into the public eye as a leader. Monroe served as Secretary of State, where he sent John Quincy Adams to negotiations in Ghent. In 1814 Madison made Monroe Secretary of War, and Monroe resigned from his position as Secretary of State, but Madison never appointed a new Secretary of State, and as a result, for a brief time, Monroe served a joint role as both Secretary of State and Secretary of War.

After the war concluded in 1815, Monroe decided to run for president in 1816. Monroe had become a hero through his leadership in the war. Monroe won the presidency with an electoral vote of 183 to 34.

Battlefields.org

The Doctrine

After doing so much reading about the Doctrine, the text itself is fairly dense and dull. A bit of a let-down if I’m honest.

The citizens of the United States cherish sentiments the most friendly in favour of the liberty and happiness of their fellow-men on that side of the Atlantic.

In the wars of the European powers in matters relating to themselves, we have never taken any part, nor does it comport with our policy to do so. It is only when our rights are invaded or seriously menaced that we resent injuries or make preparation for our defence.

With the movements in this hemisphere, we are of necessity more immediately connected, and by causes which must be obvious to all enlightened and impartial observers. The political system of the Allied powers is essentially different in this respect from that of America. This difference proceeds from that which exists in their respective Governments; and to the defence of our own, which has been achieved by the loss of so much blood and treasure, and matured by the wisdom of their most enlightened citizens, and under which we have enjoyed unexampled felicity, this whole nation is devoted.

We owe it, therefore, to candour and to the amicable relations existing between the United States and those powers to declare that we should consider any attempt on their part to extend their system to any portion of this hemisphere as dangerous to our peace and safety.

With the existing colonies or dependencies of any European power we have not interfered and shall not interfere. But with the Governments who have declared their independence and maintain it, and whose independence we have, on great consideration and on just principles, acknowledged, we could not view any interposition for the purpose of oppressing them, or controlling in any other manner their destiny, by any European power in any other light than as the manifestation of an unfriendly disposition toward the United States.

In the war between those new Governments and Spain we declared our neutrality at the time of their recognition, and to this we have adhered, and shall continue to adhere, provided no change shall occur which, in the judgment of the competent authorities of this Government, shall make a corresponding change on the part of the United States indispensable to their security.

Archives.Gov

So this guy was on the money…

The more reading I’ve done on Monroe and Trump-world, the more I’ve realised, (somewhat aghast) that it was there all along if you knew what you were looking for.

Juan Gabriel Tokatlian, Professor at Universidad Torcuato Di Tella in Buenos Aires, Argentina, warned in an article in November 2024, that Trump would revive Monroe.

…there are several potential ways in which a renewed Monroe Doctrine could take shape from 2025 onward.

In addition to defence issues, concern over China’s role in Latin America would spread to include a variety of matters involving technology, investment, trade, drugs, and diplomacy. Trump may well rely on an intimidating policy base of pressures, sanctions, and retaliations to try to persuade governments to turn away from Beijing—even though, if recent history is any guide, Washington is unlikely to offer much of an alternative when it comes to investments or help with infrastructure.

Iran’s footprint in the region is also likely to garner more attention, especially given that country’s longstanding alliances with Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua. Given Trump’s previous abandonment of a deal regarding Iran’s nuclear program during his first term, Iran may shift from being seen as an annoyance in the region to something more overtly ‘malign’—to be dealt with more forceful policy both in the Middle East and in Latin America.

But the biggest shifts could be in Washington’s treatment of Latin American governments themselves. Trump’s last Secretary of Defence, Mark Esper, in his book Sacred Oath, paints a vivid picture of Trump’s obsession with Mexico, Cuba, and Venezuela. For example, he proposed launching missiles into Mexico to obliterate drug infrastructure, imposing a blockade of Cuba, and engaging in military action against Venezuela.

A second Trump White House may well lack some of the more rational voices that averted more rash actions the first time around. And with Nicolás Maduro continuing to rely on violence and repression to subdue the political opposition in Venezuela, the temptation to intervene may only grow.

…

A hardline policy against migrants, including military deployment in the Caribbean Basin, should not be discarded, as well as an expanded role of the U.S. Southern Command in the fight against drugs and organised crime in large parts of the region.

The Monroe Doctrine is an old idea. But it hasn’t been consigned to the dustbin of history just yet.

America's Quarterly

The Donroe Trap

Donald Trump proudly calls his addition to the Monroe Doctrine the Donroe Doctrine. He bragged about this description the night he held his media conference following the successful capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

But Leon Hadar argues Monroe has always been a bogeyman for interventionist presidents.

The Monroe Doctrine belongs to a bygone era of American history. Its invocation in the twenty-first century reflects not strategic wisdom but rather the intellectual bankruptcy of a foreign policy establishment unable to imagine alternatives to interventionism. The doctrine’s promise to keep European powers out of the Western Hemisphere has morphed into a presumptuous claim that Washington should manage all regional affairs—a mission impossible that serves neither American interests nor regional stability.

The irony is rich: the same voices warning about Chinese ‘debt trap diplomacy’ in the Caribbean support policies that would trap the United States in an endless cycle of military interventions, nation-building failures, and budgetary haemorrhaging.

The same officials who claim to defend American interests advocate commitments that drain national resources while producing minimal security benefits.

The path forward requires intellectual courage—the willingness to admit that American military power cannot solve every problem and that restraint often serves national interests better than intervention. It demands recognition that the Caribbean’s proximity to the United States creates neither an obligation nor a right to dominate the region’s political affairs.

Until Washington abandons the Monroe Doctrine’s interventionist legacy and embraces a foreign policy of realistic restraint, the Caribbean will remain a theatre for costly, counterproductive military adventures. American taxpayers and Caribbean peoples alike deserve better than this tired, failed approach masquerading as a strategic necessity.

National Interest

And that’s my list for this week.

📻 On Saturday, I appeared on Monocle Radio to discuss the week in global affairs.

On Monday, I reviewed the day’s newspapers for The Globalist.

I was then in Galway, Ireland, moderating a panel on the future of geopolitics for Siren’s Fusion 2026 conference.

Oleksander V Danylyuk, former senior advisor to the Ministry of Defence and Foreign Intelligence Service, David Mackey, Mybronics CTO, Genevieve Leveille, Agriledger and John Howard, New Zealand Major General (Rtd) John Howard speaking at Siren’s Fusion 2026 conference, Galway, Ireland.

🎙️ And on the ABC’s Global Roaming podcast with Geraldine Doogue, we interviewed Michael Wesley about his claim that Australia’s diplomatic and strategic focus should be Southeast Asia (I was not convinced). Listen on all podcast apps and here.

Please do send me anything that’s caught your eye, I enjoy knowing what you’ve been reading.

EU beauty: von der Leyen's trade trifecta

Latika M Bourke — Thu, 26 Mar 2026 09:53:28 GMT

On one side of the Atlantic, trade is a dirty word; on the other, it is the definition of a revitalised European Union.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU Council President Antonio Costa in New Delhi last month. Source: EU Commission

After signing Mercosur last year and landing a major trade and security deal with India in New Delhi in J…

I asked Alexander Stubb why Europe doesn't do a reverse Trump

Latika M Bourke — Wed, 18 Mar 2026 00:36:15 GMT

London: Alexander Stubb is often touted as Europe’s Trump-whisperer. It is a moniker he is the first to disclaim.

‘I don’t want to inflate my relationship with the president of the United States,’ the Finnish President said, during an appearance at the London think tank Chatham House.
‘I have no illusions about who can convince President Trump on anything…

Trump dismayed at allies over Iran, threatens NATO again

Latika M Bourke — Tue, 17 Mar 2026 10:54:24 GMT

Donald Trump has once again undermined NATO, conflating the defensive alliance with his expectation that Allies should write the United States a blank cheque for its military ‘excursion’ in Iran.

The US President hit out at his new favourite target, Prime Minister Keir Starmer, saying the UK was once the ‘Rolls-Royce’ of allies.

US President Donald Trump …

What I'm Reading: The Iran war, a fortnight on

Latika M Bourke — Fri, 13 Mar 2026 22:54:08 GMT

With no clear goal, is Trump dumping US power down the drain?

Israel and the Trump Administration’s war with Iran is approaching one fortnight.

The Trump Administration is full of its trademark bravado that everything is going according to plan, and that it has a clear objective for what comes next, even though there have been differences starting with President Donald himself about whether they are seeking regime change or not.

The US has suffered casualties and has no immediate plans to escort ships carrying oil through the vital economic artery of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has all but closed.

The US has also changed several times what it says its objectives are, and how it will achieve them. What success looks like is currently not defined, at least publicly.

And the first six days of the war alone cost the US $11.3bn, the Pentagon briefed members of Congress – though it wasn’t clear if those numbers included the cost of the buildup or the US missile defences as well. The ultimate toll of Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz on the world economy remains to be seen.

Past administrations had been war-gaming an Iran invasion for decades – but with Trump in the White House, observers said that the rigidly closed circle of advisers around him, the collapse of an interagency process in the government and his erratic decision-making process made this unlike any other US military campaign in recent memory.

‘This is hard under any circumstances but especially with so little [evidence of] planning,’ said Philip Gordon, the former national security adviser to Kamala Harris and the White House coordinator for the Middle East under Barack Obama.

Of the growing chaos in the Middle East, he said: ‘It is surprising that Trump is surprised.’

Previous administration had ‘gamed out’ potential conflict scenarios with Iran ‘many times and constantly’, said Gordon, now of the Brookings Institution, but regularly ran into exactly the problems that the Trump administration is now facing: Iran targeted neighbouring countries to threaten a regional war and closed the strait of Hormuz, threatening the global oil trade and driving up energy prices.

‘One of the reasons we did the nuclear deal and didn’t try to change the regime is exactly what’s happening,’ he said of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Trump withdrew from the treaty in 2018.

The military campaign to eliminate the Iranian leadership has achieved considerable success. The early strikes that killed Khamenei and dozens of his senior advisers were the product of a collaboration between Israeli on-the-ground intelligence and US signals intelligence. Trump seemed poised to match the success of the 12-day war, when the US delivered surgical strikes against Iran’s nuclear programme and then exited the conflict.

But Iran has continued to fight. And as Trump and top officials such as the US defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, herald the complete destruction of the Iranian leadership in successive briefings, there are no clear explanations for what the US will call victory in the conflict, and how it will now reverse Iran’s decision to squeeze the global oil supply.

‘The military planning has been stellar,’ said Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and an expert on US foreign policy on Iran. ‘That said, politically, this is increasingly looking like a cluster fuck. And the reason is that step one of any plan is to establish a goal – the targeting should be in pursuit of that goal. The United States has this backwards. We have the targeting, but we don’t have a clear goal, and that lies not on the Pentagon planners, but on Donald Trump.’

The Guardian

Internal dissent over Khamenei Jnr’s condition

The strikes on day one wiped out the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was replaced by his son Mojtaba Khamenei only this week.

Placards bearing the image of Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei with his late father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, being displayed in Tehran, Iran, March 9, 2026 | Reuters

Further, Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen or heard in public, and his only statement was issued in writing. US Secretary of the Department of War Pete Hegseth told a media conference at the Pentagon on Friday that Mojtaba Khamenei was ‘wounded, but likely disfigured.’ The US has placed a $10 million bounty on his head, as well as on other officials linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Iran International says the transfer of power may be contested.

Iran new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s physical condition and inability to maintain regular communication with officials have prompted criticism and political maneuvering among some ruling clerics, according to information received by Iran International.

Ali Asghar Hejazi, deputy chief of staff to the former Supreme Leader, and Alireza Arafi, a member of the Guardian Council and a member of Interim Leadership Council are among clerics who have raised concerns about Mojtaba Khamenei’s health and managerial capacity, sources told Iran International.

They are pushing for authority at the top of the Islamic Republic to return to a temporary leadership council.

Hejazi and Arafi are also among influential clerics who have criticised the growing power of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and the increasing dominance of its commanders over government decision-making during the war.

Divisions between political officials and ruling clerics on one side and Revolutionary Guards commanders on the other have deepened following the killing of Iran’s former leader, particularly after Mojtaba Khamenei was introduced as the new head of the Islamic Republic.

Iran International

US deploys troops from Japan to Iran

A truck of US media outlets, citing US officials, is reporting that thousands of marines (reports cite between 2500 and 5000) in the form of a Marine expeditionary unit and warships will be sent to Iran.

Kharg Island | Getty

This is not enough for an invasion or ‘boots on the ground’ a la Afghanistan or Iraq, but it would enable the US to facilitate evacuations or a targeted military operation, such as taking Kharg Island, a tiny but one of the most important pieces of land to be watching right now.

Today, this 22-square-kilometre coral outcrop in the Bushehr province is widely known among Iranians as the ‘Forbidden Island’.

Shrouded in intense secrecy and guarded by the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), it is a place where entry is strictly restricted to those with official security clearances.

Yet, beyond the imposing steel fences and military watchtowers lies a pristine landscape where millennia of diverse human history quietly coexist with the beating heart of Iran’s modern energy empire.

….

Located 55km northwest of the Bushehr port and 15 nautical miles (equivalent to about 28km) from the Iranian mainland, Kharg Island is the undisputed economic backbone of Iran.

The island processes 90 per cent of the nation’s total oil exports, handling approximately 950 million barrels every year.

Measuring just 8km in length and 4 to 5km in width, its deep surrounding waters provide a natural geographic advantage. This depth allows colossal supertankers to dock safely and load crude destined primarily for Asian markets, with China standing as the leading importer.

According to the Iranian Ministry of Petroleum, the island’s facilities act as the vital nerve centre for the sector. The terminal receives crude from three major offshore fields – Aboozar, Forouzan, and Dorood – which is then transported via a complex network of subsea pipelines to onshore processing facilities before being stored or shipped to global markets.

In May 2025, S&P Global Commodity Insights reported that Tehran added two million barrels to the terminal’s storage capacity by rehabilitating tanks 25 and 27, each capable of holding one million barrels.

Historically, the loading capacity of these continuously upgraded terminals has reached a staggering maximum of seven million barrels per day, though current national exports hover around 1.6 million barrels daily, in addition to managing production for the domestic market.

Al Jazeera

Trump eases sanctions on Russian oil

Europe has been unable to prevent the Trump Administration from easing sanctions on Russian oil. The US has used the spike in the cost of oil (now higher than $100 per barrel) caused by the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz through which 20 million barrels flow per day, to waive the sanctions on Russian oil.

The sanctions were introduced after Vladimir Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, and the Trump Administration has berated countries like India, which refine Russian oil and resell it to countries that impose the sanctions, for their support of Russia’s war economy.

European leaders are unhappy but were ineffective in swaying Trump’s mind on a call of G7 leaders, Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz said.

‘Six members of the G7 expressed a very clear view that this is not the right signal to send. We learned this morning that the US government has apparently decided otherwise,’ (Merz said).

‘Once again, we believe this is the wrong decision. There is currently a price problem, but not a supply problem. And in that regard, I would like to know what additional motives led the US government to make this decision.’

Merz, who discussed support for Ukraine in its war against Russia with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store, said Moscow continues to show no willingness to negotiate and that pressure on the Kremlin must increase.

Deutsche Welle

MAGA supports Iran war, Pence

Vice President JD Vance notably referred to the war in Iran as a ‘military operation,’ in a rare public appearance since the war’s beginning.

Vance and Rubio are considered rivals for the GOP nomination in 2028 and Vance represents the MAGA soul, compared to the more traditional and hawkish US Secretary of State.

Vice President JD Vance speaking at Rocky Mount, North Carolina.

Vance was asked what he advised the President and Vance said he would not do this because the conversations in the Situation Room are classified. Again, a notable non-response. But the crowd loved it and applauded his response resoundingly.

‘When you're thinking about a major decision like this, the way the President makes these decisions is he talks to a lot of people,’ Vance told reporters later.

‘Obviously, we're thinking about various ins and outs, various options, what this looks like, how to accomplish our goals, what our goals should be. And I think it's important for the President of the United States to be able to have that conversation with his team, without his team, then running their mouths to the American media.

‘So part of what makes our national security team so cohesive is that we all trust each other, and we all have a very free exchange of ideas. I'd like to keep that going.’

Trump’s first and former Vice President Mike Pence is no supplicant of Trump, having been pursued by insurrectionists on January 6, in 2021.

He represents traditional Republican hawkishness on Iran as opposed to the supposed resistance of the Make America Great Again (MAGA) Trump supporters, who backed Trump because they believed he would not drag them into forever wars.

But Pence believes there is no divide.

‘If we continue to pound the security infrastructure in Iran, I believe that we’ll create the conditions for the people of Iran’ to overthrow their government, Pence said.

Pence, who served as vice president during Trump’s first term in office, said he disagrees there is a wide rift within the GOP over the conflict.

Some members of Trump’s ‘Make America Great Again’ movement have said they feel betrayed by the president’s intervention overseas after he pledged as a candidate to avoid wars. Other critics within MAGA oppose the Trump administration’s supportive policy toward Israel.

That divide is largely ‘among some commentators, some online influencers,’ Pence said.

NewsNation

And that’s my list for this week.

📻 On Saturday, I appeared on Times Radio to discuss the week in geopolitics and British politics.

On Wednesday, I joined the BBC’s Five Live to discuss the difference between Australian Question Time and the UK’s Prime Minister’s Questions.

🎙️ And on the ABC’s Global Roaming podcast with Geraldine Doogue we interviewed the New York Times’ veteran journalist Steven Earlanger about the Iran war. Listen on all podcast apps and here.

Please do send me anything that’s caught your eye, I enjoy knowing what you’ve been reading.

The Mandelson Files: Starmer is out of excuses

Latika M Bourke — Thu, 12 Mar 2026 07:58:30 GMT

Keir Starmer knew.

The UK Prime Minister was explicitly warned about Peter Mandelson’s links to the convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein and the former Labour peer’s links to China and promotion of CCP lies.

Files released on Thursday have exposed Keir Starmer as the inept, toadying, charlatan that he is. Despite being told that Mandelson’s connections t…

Latika Takes interviews Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna

Latika M Bourke — Sun, 08 Mar 2026 09:09:00 GMT

This week Latika Takes: The Podcast welcomes back Estonia’s Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna, who is travelling to Australia this week.

Estonia’s Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna speaks to Latika Takes: The Podcast ahead of his trip to Australia.

The Estonian Foreign Minister sets out why he supports the US and Israel’s war against Iran, but won’t be involved.

He expresses unhappiness with the Trump Administration’s oil reprieve granted to Vladimir Putin in spite of the Russian President’s continued war in Ukraine.

They discuss the validity of the Coalition of the Willing deploying in Ukraine. And Mr Tsahkna discusses his conversation with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi about ending the war in Ukraine.

Thanks for listening. Please rate and review my podcast.

Suddenly Zelensky has so many cards

Latika M Bourke — Thu, 05 Mar 2026 23:23:51 GMT

How the tables turn.

After being insulted and humiliated in the Oval Office around this time last year, the United States is suddenly realising that Volodymyr Zelensky not only holds a handful of cards, but that some of them may be aces.

‘We received a request from the United States for specific support in protection against “shaheds” in the Middle East r…

Q&A: John Bolton savages weak Starmer over Iran

Latika M Bourke — Mon, 02 Mar 2026 13:32:03 GMT

John Bolton served as national security adviser between 2018 and 2019 in the first Trump Administration and is one of the United States’ leading Iran hawks.

He fell out with the President over the publication of his memoir, The Room Where it Happened and is subsequently being pursued by the second Administration over the alleged mishandling of classified…